The Romanian leu’s exchange rate is projected to experience moderate depreciation in 2026, with most forecasts suggesting that the euro will range between approximately 5.05 to 5.25 lei. Some more pessimistic scenarios predict values approaching or slightly exceeding 5.2 lei/euro.
Key Forecasts
A report by XTB, highlighted by ŞtirileProTV, anticipates an exchange rate of about 5.25 lei/euro by the end of 2026. This outlook assumes a decline in inflation to around 3.9% coupled with a high budget deficit. Meanwhile, an analysis from UniCredit, as cited by CursdeGuvernare, envisions the leu trading between 5.00 and 5.10 lei/euro in the first half of 2026, with an increase to 5.10 to 5.20 lei/euro in the latter half due to a gradual decrease in inflation.
Other economic analyses from sources like Wall-Street and Monitorul de Cluj indicate that the euro could surpass the 5 lei/euro mark in 2025, potentially rising toward or exceeding 5.2 lei/euro in 2026, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing budgetary imbalances.
Relevant Macroeconomic Context
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) projects an inflation rate of roughly 3.7% by the end of 2026, with a return to the inflation target expected only in 2027. This suggests a continued cautious monetary policy that might facilitate a controlled depreciation of the leu. The European Commission forecasts modest economic growth for Romania, around 1.1% in 2026, with private consumption impacted by fiscal consolidation measures. Conversely, investments supported by Romania’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) may alleviate some exchange rate pressures without completely eliminating them.
Expected Range for the Exchange Rate in 2026
Based on these forecasts, a probable exchange rate range for EUR/RON in 2026 can be outlined as follows:
First Half of 2026: The frequently mentioned range is 5.00 to 5.10 lei/euro, with slight tests above 5.10 during tension-filled periods.
- Second Half of 2026: Many scenarios suggest an increase to between 5.10 and 5.25 lei/euro, with some estimates predicting that the rate may exceed 5.2 lei/euro in cases of higher than anticipated inflation and budgetary deficits.
It is essential to recognize that these values are projections rather than certainties; they are influenced by inflation trends, the budget deficit, BNR policy, and external economic conditions.
Key Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
Several key factors could significantly affect the exchange rate:
Budget Deficit: A credible fiscal correction could help mitigate depreciation; delays in necessary adjustments might push the euro above the outlined ranges.
Inflation and BNR Interest Rates: A more rapid decline in inflation could lead to interest rate cuts and reduced volatility. In contrast, prolonged inflation would maintain pressure on the leu.
- External Context: Slower global growth in 2026 and potential episodes of risk aversion could further weaken regional currencies, including the leu.
Practical Implications for 2026
For savings held in lei versus euros, forecasts indicate a gradual depreciation rather than a sudden spike. This context may favor gradual currency conversion strategies for individuals looking to protect their assets partially.
For loans in lei linked to ROBOR/IRCC rates, falling inflation scenarios point to the possibility of reduced key interest rates starting in 2026, which could ease the burden of debt payments even if the leu depreciates slightly.
This analysis is supported by insights from the NewsVibe platform and Perplexity Comet.
