George Simion, head of AUR, is currently rated at 28% in the latest survey conducted by Flashdata, while Crin Antonescu, the candidate backed by the PSD-PNL-UDMR alliance, closely follows with 26%.
The mere two-point difference falls within the margin of error, making the race for the top position extremely tight. This survey was carried out between April 3-5, 2025, and is the first published by Flashdata since the election campaign began.
Crin Antonescu dangerously edging closer to AUR’s leader
In third place among voters’ preferences is Nicușor Dan, the Mayor of the Capital, running as an independent and credited with 23% of voting intentions. In contrast, Victor Ponta, who was seen as one of the frontrunners in a previous Sociopol survey, does not surpass 9% in this current research.
Elena Lasconi, representing USR, scores 6%, followed by Lavinia Șandru (PUSL) with 4.6%. Independent candidate Daniel Funeriu achieves 1.5%, while Cristian Terheș is rated at just 0.5%. Silviu Predoiu (0.2%) and Sebastian Popescu (0.1%) occupy the bottom of the ranking. It is noteworthy that John-Ion Banu-Muscel, an independent candidate, does not register in the survey with any percentage.
Regarding potential matchups in the second round, Flashdata’s analyzed scenarios indicate that Crin Antonescu would win under all tested hypotheses. If he were to face Nicușor Dan in the final, he would garner 55% of the votes. In a scenario where George Simion competes against Nicușor Dan, the latter would win with 58%.
The duel between Crin Antonescu and George Simion would end in favor of the former liberal leader with 61% of the votes. In the case of a confrontation between Antonescu and Ponta, the former would achieve a clear victory with 67%.
The Flashdata poll, conducted on a representative sample from April 3-5, 2025, arrives just days after the one published by Sociopol over the weekend. In that earlier research, George Simion and Victor Ponta were showcased as the main favorites; however, the recent results suggest a different electoral dynamic, with Crin Antonescu entering the race strongly.
The importance of the small differences among the top candidates is underscored by the fact that their scores lie within the margin of error, meaning any slight shift in voter opinion could overturn the rankings at any moment. The presence of three candidates with close scores—George Simion, Crin Antonescu, and Nicușor Dan—signals a tense competition in the upcoming period.
Data regarding voting intentions for the second round suggest that voters would prefer, in most scenarios, a candidate associated with established political alliances or one with an image of administrative independence, as is the case with Nicușor Dan. Even against George Simion, Nicușor Dan would secure 58% of the votes according to the Flashdata survey.
The most significant difference favoring Crin Antonescu appears in the scenario of a face-off with Victor Ponta, with a score of 67% to 33%, reflecting a notable gap compared to other scenarios. This suggests a decline in confidence in the former Prime Minister compared to when he was at the helm of the government.
The survey does not include information regarding estimated voter turnout or the geographical distribution of voting preferences; however, the data presented provide a snapshot of voter preferences amid the ongoing presidential campaign. It remains to be seen how these figures will evolve as candidates continue their campaigns in the field.
A graduate of FJSC in 2014, I have written for several well-known publications in Romania.
